The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Dolphins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as favorite after 3+ game losing streak, the Miami Dolphins are just 12-33-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -49.1% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +49.1%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record12-33-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size45 games
ROI-49.1%
Units Won-22.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20150-5-00.0%-100.0%
20161-4-00.0%-61.8%
20172-4-00.0%-36.4%
20182-5-00.0%-45.5%
20191-4-00.0%-61.8%
20202-2-00.0%-4.5%
20211-2-00.0%-36.4%
20220-3-00.0%-100.0%
20231-3-00.0%-52.3%
20242-1-00.0%+27.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Dolphins' struggles as favorites following extended losing streaks stem from a franchise culture that has historically lacked the mental fortitude to bounce back from adversity. When Miami finally gets favored after dropping three or more consecutive games, the team often faces inflated expectations that don't align with their actual readiness to perform. The organization has repeatedly shown an inability to make the necessary adjustments during losing skids, meaning the underlying issues that caused the streak often persist even when the betting market shows renewed confidence. Miami's coaching staff has demonstrated a pattern of being slow to adapt game plans or personnel decisions during rough patches. This creates a disconnect between public perception - which drives the line movement that makes them favorites - and the team's actual competitive state. The Dolphins often get favored in these spots because they're playing weaker opponents or returning home, but their internal problems haven't been resolved simply because the schedule lightened up. Smart bettors should view Miami favorites after losing streaks as prime fade opportunities, particularly when the line seems generous relative to recent performance. This trend carries the most weight in divisional games and primetime spots where pressure amplifies existing weaknesses.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Miami Dolphins's ATS record as favorite after 3+ game losing streak?

The Miami Dolphins have gone 12-33-0 ATS as favorites after a 3+ game losing streak from 2014-2024. This represents a 26.7% ATS win rate over 45 games.

Is betting on the Miami Dolphins as favorite after 3+ game losing streak profitable?

No, betting on the Miami Dolphins as favorites after 3+ game losing streaks is not profitable. The strategy shows a -49.1% ROI with a 0.0% straight-up win rate.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than typical NFL trends. Most teams struggle as favorites after losing streaks, but Miami's 0% win rate and -49.1% ROI represent exceptionally poor performance in this situation.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.