The data suggests caution when backing the Miami Dolphins in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Miami Dolphins are just 4-9-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -41.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +41.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record4-9-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size13 games
ROI-41.3%
Units Won-5.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20150-1-00.0%-100.0%
20160-1-00.0%-100.0%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20180-3-00.0%-100.0%
20201-1-00.0%-4.5%
20210-1-00.0%-100.0%
20220-1-00.0%-100.0%
20231-1-00.0%-4.5%
20241-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Miami Dolphins' struggles as away favorites following losses stem from a combination of psychological fragility and organizational instability that has plagued the franchise for over a decade. When Miami suffers a defeat, the team often experiences a compounding effect where confidence erodes rapidly, particularly problematic when they're expected to bounce back on the road as favorites. The Dolphins have historically lacked the veteran leadership and mental toughness required to handle the dual pressure of recovering from disappointment while meeting elevated expectations in hostile environments. Miami's coaching instability since 2014 has exacerbated this issue, as different regimes have failed to establish consistent systems for handling adversity. The team's offensive identity has shifted repeatedly, making it difficult for players to execute with confidence when facing the added pressure of being road chalk after a loss. The Dolphins often appear tight and overthink situations in these spots, leading to uncharacteristic mistakes and conservative play-calling that fails to cover spreads. Bettors should particularly target fading Miami in this situation when they're facing divisional opponents or teams with strong home-field advantages. This trend carries the most weight early in seasons when the Dolphins haven't yet established their identity or late in campaigns when playoff pressure mounts.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Miami Dolphins's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Miami Dolphins have a 4-9-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 30.8% ATS win rate in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Miami Dolphins as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Miami Dolphins as away favorites after a loss has not been profitable. This trend shows a -41.3% ROI with a 0.0% straight-up win rate over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% ATS in similar situations. The Dolphins' 30.8% ATS rate and negative ROI indicate they consistently struggle in this spot.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.