The data suggests caution when backing the Los Angeles Rams in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as medium favorite (-3.5 to -7), the Los Angeles Rams are just 6-7-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -11.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +11.9%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record6-7-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size13 games
ROI-11.9%
Units Won-1.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-0-00.0%+90.9%
20180-1-00.0%-100.0%
20190-1-00.0%-100.0%
20212-0-00.0%+90.9%
20222-2-00.0%-4.5%
20231-2-00.0%-36.4%
20240-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Rams' struggles as medium favorites stem from their tendency to play down to competition and their offensive inconsistencies under pressure. When laying 3.5 to 7 points, Los Angeles often faces teams desperate for upset victories, creating emotional intensity that neutralizes the Rams' talent advantage. Their high-powered offense, built around quick strikes and explosive plays, can become predictable when opponents sell out to stop big gains, forcing them into methodical drives that don't align with their natural rhythm. Sean McVay's aggressive play-calling philosophy, while effective in many situations, can backfire when the Rams are expected to control games. The team's propensity for turnovers and penalties increases when they press to cover larger spreads, particularly against disciplined defensive units that can capitalize on mistakes. Their defense, while talented, has shown vulnerability to well-prepared opponents who exploit their aggressive tendencies with misdirection and timing routes. The psychological burden of being expected to win convincingly affects this team more than most, as evidenced by their inconsistent performances in games where they're clearly the superior talent. Bettors should be particularly cautious backing the Rams as medium favorites against teams with strong coaching or those playing at home with nothing to lose. This trend matters most when facing divisional opponents or teams coming off bye weeks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Los Angeles Rams's ATS record as medium favorite (-3.5 to -7)?

The Los Angeles Rams have a 6-7-0 ATS record when favored by 3.5 to 7 points from 2014-2024. This translates to a 46.2% cover rate in medium favorite situations.

Is betting on the Los Angeles Rams as medium favorite (-3.5 to -7) profitable?

No, betting on the Rams as medium favorites has not been profitable, showing a -11.9% ROI over this period. They have failed to cover the spread more often than they've covered it in these situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Rams' 46.2% ATS win rate as medium favorites is below the typical league average of around 50% for all ATS scenarios. Their negative ROI indicates underperformance compared to expected betting outcomes.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.