Los Angeles Rams Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Los Angeles Rams in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Los Angeles Rams are just 7-9-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -16.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +16.5%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2015 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2017 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2020 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2021 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2022 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2023 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Rams' struggles as large favorites stem from their tendency to play down to inferior competition, a pattern that intensified during their championship window when motivation became inconsistent against overmatched opponents. Los Angeles has historically been a team built on explosive offensive plays and defensive pressure, but these advantages can become neutralized when facing desperate underdogs who slow the game's pace and limit possessions. Sean McVay's aggressive offensive philosophy often leads to early leads that create complacency, allowing weaker teams to hang around longer than the spread suggests they should. The Rams' defense, while talented, has shown vulnerability to disciplined game plans from underdogs who can control clock and field position. Their emotional investment tends to wane when facing teams they're expected to dominate easily. The franchise's West Coast location also creates unique scheduling disadvantages, particularly in early East Coast games where the large favorite role coincides with travel fatigue. McVay's teams have consistently shown they perform better when facing quality opposition that demands their full attention. Bettors should be most cautious backing the Rams as large home favorites against division rivals or teams with nothing to lose late in the season, when motivation mismatches are most pronounced.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Los Angeles Rams's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?
The Los Angeles Rams have a 7-9-0 ATS record when favored by 7.5 points or more from 2014-2024. This translates to a 43.8% ATS win rate in these situations.
Is betting on the Los Angeles Rams as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?
No, betting on the Rams as large favorites has not been profitable, showing a -16.5% ROI. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing the Rams when they were heavily favored.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Rams' 43.8% ATS win rate as large favorites is below the typical league average of around 50% for ATS performance. Their -16.5% ROI indicates significantly worse performance than break-even betting.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.