Los Angeles Chargers Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Los Angeles Chargers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Los Angeles Chargers are just 4-19-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -66.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +66.8%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2016 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2021 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2023 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Chargers' struggles as large favorites stem from their organizational tendency to play down to competition levels, a psychological trap that has plagued the franchise for decades. This team consistently enters games with inflated expectations, leading to complacent preparation and execution when facing supposedly inferior opponents. The Chargers' coaching staff has historically struggled with game management in blowout situations, often becoming conservative too early or failing to maintain the killer instinct needed to cover substantial spreads. Los Angeles possesses the talent to dominate weaker teams, but their mental approach shifts dramatically when installed as heavy favorites. The pressure to perform at an elite level paradoxically causes them to tighten up, resulting in sluggish starts and inconsistent offensive rhythm. Their defense, while capable of shutting down opponents, frequently allows garbage-time scoring that kills spread coverage. The franchise's history of underachievement creates a self-fulfilling prophecy where players and coaches alike seem to expect disappointment in high-leverage situations. This manifests as poor red zone execution and costly turnovers at crucial moments. Bettors should be especially wary of backing the Chargers as large home favorites against divisional opponents, where familiarity breeds contempt and emotional letdowns are most likely to occur.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Los Angeles Chargers's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?
The Los Angeles Chargers have a 4-19-0 ATS record when favored by 7.5 points or more from 2014-2024. This represents a 17.4% ATS win rate over 23 games as large favorites.
Is betting on the Los Angeles Chargers as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?
No, betting on the Chargers as large favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -66.8% ROI. Bettors would have lost approximately 67 cents for every dollar wagered on the Chargers in these situations.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads over time. The Chargers' 17.4% ATS rate as large favorites represents one of the worst trends in the NFL during this period.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.