Las Vegas Raiders Home Underdog After a Win Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Las Vegas Raiders in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Las Vegas Raiders are just 5-6-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -13.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +13.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2017 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2018 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2019 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2021 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Raiders' struggles as home underdogs following victories stem from a perfect storm of organizational instability and psychological letdowns that have plagued the franchise for over a decade. Las Vegas has consistently dealt with coaching turnover, front office changes, and roster upheaval that creates inconsistent preparation and game-planning week to week. When the team enters as home underdogs after a win, they're typically facing superior opponents during periods when their own talent level is questionable, making the emotional high of a previous victory particularly dangerous. The franchise's transient nature, from Oakland to Las Vegas, has also disrupted any semblance of home-field advantage that might help overcome talent gaps. Unlike established franchises with deep-rooted fan cultures, the Raiders have struggled to create the intimidating atmosphere needed when facing better teams as underdogs. The psychological aspect cannot be ignored either - this organization has historically shown poor emotional regulation, often playing down to competition or failing to maintain focus after positive results. Smart bettors should target fading the Raiders in these specific spots, particularly when they're catching more than a field goal at home after defeating a weaker opponent. This trend carries the most weight early in seasons when roster chemistry remains unsettled.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Las Vegas Raiders's ATS record as home underdog after a win?
The Las Vegas Raiders have an ATS record of 5-6-0 as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This represents a 45.5% ATS win rate over 11 games in this specific situation.
Is betting on the Las Vegas Raiders as home underdog after a win profitable?
No, betting on the Las Vegas Raiders as home underdogs after a win has not been profitable. The strategy shows a negative ROI of -13.2% with a 0% win rate, indicating consistent losses for bettors.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly below league average expectations. Most NFL teams perform closer to 50% ATS in situational spots, making the Raiders' 45.5% rate and negative ROI notably poor in this scenario.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.