The data suggests caution when backing the Jacksonville Jaguars in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Jacksonville Jaguars are just 10-29-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -51.0% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +51.0%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record10-29-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size39 games
ROI-51.0%
Units Won-19.9u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-2-00.0%-4.5%
20152-1-00.0%+27.3%
20161-3-00.0%-52.3%
20171-5-00.0%-68.2%
20180-4-00.0%-100.0%
20190-2-00.0%-100.0%
20202-3-00.0%-23.6%
20211-5-00.0%-68.2%
20220-1-00.0%-100.0%
20231-2-00.0%-36.4%
20240-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Jaguars' dismal performance as favorites stems from a franchise plagued by inconsistent quarterback play and organizational instability that creates a dangerous overconfidence when given respect by oddsmakers. Jacksonville has cycled through multiple coaching regimes and signal-callers, making it difficult to establish the kind of systematic execution required when laying points. The team's defensive identity, while occasionally dominant, creates a false sense of security that masks underlying offensive limitations. When Jacksonville enters games as favorites, they're typically facing teams with inferior records, but these matchups expose the Jaguars' inability to impose their will consistently. Their offensive line struggles have been a constant throughout multiple seasons, making it difficult to control games through ball possession and field position. The team often finds itself in tight contests where their lack of proven playmakers becomes magnified under pressure. The psychological element cannot be ignored – Jacksonville players and coaches seem to press when expectations rise, leading to uncharacteristic penalties and mental errors that keep opponents within striking distance. Their home field advantage at TIAA Bank Field has proven minimal compared to other NFL venues. This trend becomes most dangerous when Jacksonville is favored by less than a field goal against division rivals or teams with nothing to lose late in the season.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Jacksonville Jaguars's ATS record as as favorite?

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 10-29-0 ATS record as favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 25.6% of games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances by any team when favored over this period.

Is betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars as as favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Jacksonville Jaguars as favorites has been extremely unprofitable with a -51.0% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost approximately half their investment backing the Jaguars when they were favored.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as NFL favorites typically cover the spread around 50% of the time. The Jaguars' 25.6% cover rate as favorites is among the worst in the league over this timeframe.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.