The public often underestimates the Indianapolis Colts in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Indianapolis Colts hold a record of 14-6-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +33.6% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $7 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record14-6-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size20 games
ROI+33.6%
Units Won+6.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-2-00.0%-4.5%
20164-0-00.0%+90.9%
20172-0-00.0%+90.9%
20181-1-00.0%-4.5%
20194-0-00.0%+90.9%
20200-1-00.0%-100.0%
20211-0-00.0%+90.9%
20220-1-00.0%-100.0%
20240-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Colts' exceptional performance as large underdogs stems from their organizational culture of resilience and their tendency to elevate their play when expectations are lowest. Indianapolis has historically thrived in underdog scenarios because their coaching staff, particularly during the Chuck Pagano and Frank Reich eras, emphasized preparation and game-planning that allowed them to exploit opponents who may have overlooked them. The franchise's quarterback situations during these underdog spots often featured veterans like Andrew Luck or backup quarterbacks playing with nothing to lose, creating unpredictable offensive schemes that caught favored teams off-guard. The Colts' defensive philosophy also plays a crucial role in these scenarios. When facing superior opponents, they typically employ more aggressive defensive packages and exotic blitzes that can disrupt high-powered offenses expecting easier matchups. Their special teams units have consistently been above average, providing the field position advantages necessary to keep games competitive against better teams. For bettors, the key insight is recognizing when Indianapolis enters these spots with their starting quarterback healthy and coming off extra preparation time. This trend carries the most weight in divisional games or nationally televised contests where the Colts have additional motivation to prove doubters wrong.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Indianapolis Colts's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?

The Indianapolis Colts have an excellent 14-6-0 ATS record as large underdogs (+7.5 or more) from 2014-2024. This represents a 70% ATS win rate over 20 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Indianapolis Colts as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Colts as large underdogs has been highly profitable with a 33.6% ROI. Despite never winning outright (0% win rate), they consistently cover the spread in these situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance significantly exceeds league average expectations for large underdogs. Most teams struggle to cover large spreads consistently, making the Colts' 70% ATS rate and 33.6% ROI exceptional.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.