Green Bay Packers Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend

The Packers' struggles as large favorites stem from their offensive identity crisis when expectations run highest. Green Bay has historically relied on Aaron Rodgers' improvisational brilliance to overcome structural deficiencies, but when laying significant points, opposing teams pack the box and force systematic execution the Packers often lack. Their offensive line inconsistencies become magnified against motivated underdogs who can afford to take risks, while Green Bay's defense has chronically struggled to generate the dominant performances needed to cover inflated spreads. Matt LaFleur's system emphasizes ball control and methodical drives, which works against the quick-strike mentality required when spotting teams double digits. The Packers also tend to play down to competition levels, a psychological trait that's plagued the franchise across multiple coaching regimes. When facing desperate teams with nothing to lose, Green Bay's conservative approach in crucial moments prevents the explosive plays necessary to justify their hefty price tags. The most actionable insight here is recognizing that Green Bay's value lies in their ability to win games, not demolish opponents. Their systematic approach creates consistent victories but rarely the blowouts that large spreads demand. This trend matters most in primetime divisional games where emotion and familiarity level the playing field regardless of talent disparities.