The public often underestimates the Green Bay Packers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Green Bay Packers hold a record of 14-6-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +33.6% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $7 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record14-6-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size20 games
ROI+33.6%
Units Won+6.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-0-00.0%+90.9%
20150-2-00.0%-100.0%
20162-0-00.0%+90.9%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20180-1-00.0%-100.0%
20192-1-00.0%+27.3%
20202-0-00.0%+90.9%
20211-0-00.0%+90.9%
20221-1-00.0%-4.5%
20231-0-00.0%+90.9%
20241-1-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Packers' exceptional performance as large underdogs stems from their organizational culture and Aaron Rodgers' elite quarterback play in high-stakes situations. When Green Bay finds itself getting significant points, it typically means they're facing elite competition or dealing with injuries, yet the team consistently rises to meet these challenges. Rodgers thrives when his back is against the wall, often delivering his most memorable performances when expectations are lowest. Green Bay's coaching staff, particularly under Matt LaFleur, excels at game-planning when they have extra time to prepare and adjust. The Packers' offensive versatility allows them to exploit defensive schemes that opponents install specifically to contain their primary weapons. When teams over-prepare for Rodgers and Davante Adams (now Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs), Green Bay's depth players often emerge as difference-makers. The franchise's playoff pedigree creates a psychological edge where veteran players elevate their performance in meaningful games, while younger players feed off the energy of playing spoiler against favored opponents. This mental toughness translates directly to covering large spreads even in losses. Target this trend most aggressively in divisional matchups and nationally televised games where motivation peaks and Rodgers' competitive fire burns brightest.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Green Bay Packers's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?

The Green Bay Packers have a 14-6-0 ATS record when they are large underdogs of +7.5 points or more from 2014-2024. This translates to a 70% ATS win rate in these situations.

Is betting on the Green Bay Packers as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Green Bay Packers as large underdogs has been highly profitable with a 33.6% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite never winning outright in these games (0.0% win rate), they consistently cover the spread.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 70% ATS win rate significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for teams in similar underdog situations. The Packers have been exceptionally reliable ATS bets when getting 7.5+ points.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.