The data suggests caution when backing the Green Bay Packers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Green Bay Packers are just 13-35-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -48.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +48.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record13-35-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size48 games
ROI-48.3%
Units Won-23.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-3-00.0%-23.6%
20152-1-00.0%+27.3%
20161-5-00.0%-68.2%
20172-4-00.0%-36.4%
20181-7-00.0%-76.1%
20192-4-00.0%-36.4%
20201-4-00.0%-61.8%
20210-1-00.0%-100.0%
20220-2-00.0%-100.0%
20231-3-00.0%-52.3%
20241-1-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Packers' struggles as favorites stem from a combination of inflated public perception and situational letdowns that have plagued the franchise for years. Green Bay consistently attracts heavy public money due to their storied history and Aaron Rodgers' star power, creating line movement that often prices them beyond their true value. The team has shown a troubling pattern of playing down to inferior competition, particularly in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds complacency. Green Bay's offensive system, while explosive, can become predictable against motivated underdogs who have extra time to prepare. Their defense has been inconsistent throughout this period, struggling to maintain intensity when expected to dominate weaker opponents. The Packers also face unique pressure playing at historic Lambeau Field, where expectations run sky-high and any sign of struggle amplifies quickly. The psychological burden of being perennial playoff contenders creates a feast-or-famine mentality where the team either dominates or falls flat. This inconsistency becomes magnified when they're laying points, as their margin for error shrinks considerably. This trend matters most when Green Bay is favored by 7+ points against divisional opponents or coming off emotional victories, situations where their focus and preparation historically waver.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Green Bay Packers's ATS record as as favorite?

The Green Bay Packers have a 13-35-0 ATS record when favored from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 27.1% of games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances for any team in a favored role over this period.

Is betting on the Green Bay Packers as as favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Green Bay Packers as favorites has been highly unprofitable with a -48.3% ROI from 2014-2024. This means bettors would have lost nearly half their investment backing the Packers when they were favored.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as favorites typically cover around 48-52% of the time. The Packers' 27.1% ATS rate as favorites is well below normal expectations for favored teams.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.