The data suggests caution when backing the Detroit Lions in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Detroit Lions are just 5-10-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -36.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +36.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record5-10-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size15 games
ROI-36.4%
Units Won-5.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20151-2-00.0%-36.4%
20161-0-00.0%+90.9%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20181-1-00.0%-4.5%
20190-2-00.0%-100.0%
20211-1-00.0%-4.5%
20220-1-00.0%-100.0%
20230-1-00.0%-100.0%
20240-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Lions' struggles against division rivals at Ford Field stem from a toxic combination of heightened expectations and historical defensive deficiencies. Detroit's fanbase creates enormous pressure in these marquee matchups, often leading to tight, overthought performances from a franchise that has traditionally thrived as an underdog. The Lions have consistently fielded offenses built around quick-strike capabilities rather than methodical, clock-controlling drives that typically win divisional slugfests. NFC North rivals have exploited Detroit's tendency to abandon their ground game when trailing early at home. The Bears, Packers, and Vikings understand that pressuring Jared Goff into quick decisions neutralizes the Lions' vertical passing attack, forcing them into predictable offensive patterns. Detroit's coaching staff has historically struggled with in-game adjustments when facing familiar opponents who've had extensive film study opportunities. The psychological weight of playing division rivals at home creates a perfect storm where Detroit often plays not to lose rather than to win. Their aggressive defensive schemes become conservative, and their typically explosive offense settles for field goals in the red zone. This trend carries the most betting significance in primetime divisional games where public money heavily backs the Lions, creating inflated home spreads that consistently fail to cover.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Detroit Lions's ATS record as home vs division rival?

The Detroit Lions have a 5-10-0 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This represents a 33.3% ATS win rate over 15 games.

Is betting on the Detroit Lions as home vs division rival profitable?

No, betting on the Detroit Lions as home favorites against division rivals has not been profitable. The -36.4% ROI indicates significant losses for bettors backing Detroit in these situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the league average of approximately 50% ATS. The Lions' 33.3% ATS rate in home division games represents poor value compared to typical NFL betting expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.