The public often underestimates the Detroit Lions in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Detroit Lions hold a record of 7-3-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +33.6% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $3 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record7-3-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size10 games
ROI+33.6%
Units Won+3.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20152-1-00.0%+27.3%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20181-0-00.0%+90.9%
20191-0-00.0%+90.9%
20201-0-00.0%+90.9%
20211-0-00.0%+90.9%
20230-1-00.0%-100.0%
20240-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Lions' success as home underdogs following victories stems from a potent combination of undervaluation and momentum psychology. Detroit has historically been dismissed by oddsmakers and the betting public, creating situations where the team enters as home dogs despite carrying positive momentum from recent wins. This dynamic becomes particularly pronounced at Ford Field, where the Lions have cultivated one of the NFL's more intimidating atmospheres in recent years, especially during their resurgent period under Dan Campbell. The psychological element cannot be understated. Teams coming off wins typically maintain elevated confidence levels, and when that confidence meets the perceived disrespect of being home underdogs, it creates a powerful motivational cocktail. Detroit's blue-collar identity and fanbase historically embrace the underdog role, turning what might deflate other franchises into fuel for superior performance. The strategic advantage lies in game preparation and coaching adjustments. Teams coming off victories often have cleaner film study sessions and can build upon successful schemes rather than scrambling to fix fundamental issues. This preparation advantage compounds when playing at home, where communication is clearer and routine is established. This trend holds maximum value when Detroit faces quality opponents where the underdog line reflects respect for the opposition rather than genuine Lions weakness, particularly in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds competitive games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Detroit Lions's ATS record as home underdog after a win?

The Detroit Lions have a 7-3-0 ATS record as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This translates to a 70% ATS win rate over 10 games in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Detroit Lions as home underdog after a win profitable?

Yes, betting on the Detroit Lions as home underdogs after a win has been highly profitable with a 33.6% ROI. Despite their 0.0% straight-up win rate, they consistently cover the spread in this scenario.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 70% ATS rate significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for similar situations. The Lions have been exceptionally reliable ATS bets when playing at home as underdogs following a victory.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.