The public often underestimates the Denver Broncos in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Denver Broncos hold a record of 13-8-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +18.2% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $4 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record13-8-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size21 games
ROI+18.2%
Units Won+3.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-2-00.0%-100.0%
20151-0-00.0%+90.9%
20163-1-00.0%+43.2%
20171-0-00.0%+90.9%
20182-0-00.0%+90.9%
20192-0-00.0%+90.9%
20202-1-00.0%+27.3%
20211-2-00.0%-36.4%
20221-2-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Broncos' success as large underdogs stems from their organizational culture of defensive resilience and veteran leadership that refuses to fold under pressure. Denver's defensive identity, particularly during their championship years, created a foundation where players expect to keep games competitive regardless of point spreads. When facing significant deficits on paper, this defensive backbone prevents blowouts and keeps backdoor covering opportunities alive. Large underdog situations often arise when Denver faces elite offenses or plays on the road against superior competition. The team's coaching staff historically excels at game-planning for these scenarios, utilizing conservative offensive approaches that limit turnovers while relying on defensive takeaways to shift momentum. The Broncos' special teams units have consistently provided field position advantages that compress games, making large spreads difficult to cover for opponents. Denver's quarterback situations during these underdog spots often feature game managers rather than explosive passers, which paradoxically helps their covering percentage. These conservative approaches prevent the catastrophic mistakes that turn competitive games into routs, while opportunistic defensive play creates short-field scoring chances. This trend carries the most weight when Denver faces high-powered offenses in primetime or playoff-adjacent games where their defensive pride peaks.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Broncos's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?

The Denver Broncos have a 13-8-0 ATS record when they are large underdogs of +7.5 points or more from 2014-2024. This represents a strong 61.9% ATS win rate in these situations.

Is betting on the Denver Broncos as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Denver Broncos as large underdogs has been profitable with an 18.2% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite never winning outright in these games, they have consistently covered the spread at a high rate.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Broncos' 61.9% ATS win rate as large underdogs significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for underdogs. This makes them one of the more reliable teams to back when getting substantial points.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.