The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Broncos in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Denver Broncos are just 1-13-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -86.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +86.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record1-13-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size14 games
ROI-86.4%
Units Won-12.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20150-1-00.0%-100.0%
20170-4-00.0%-100.0%
20200-2-00.0%-100.0%
20211-2-00.0%-36.4%
20230-3-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Broncos' dismal performance as home favorites after losses reveals a franchise struggling with psychological resilience and organizational instability. Denver's post-loss mentality appears particularly fragile when carrying the burden of home expectations, suggesting a team that lacks the mental fortitude to bounce back under pressure. This pattern intensifies when the franchise faces the dual stress of disappointing home fans while being expected to win as favorites. Denver's coaching instability over the past decade has contributed significantly to this trend. The constant turnover in leadership has prevented the development of consistent systems for handling adversity, leaving players without reliable frameworks for responding to setbacks. When facing motivated opponents who smell blood after a Denver loss, the Broncos consistently fail to meet elevated expectations at home. The franchise's quarterback volatility during this period has amplified these issues. Without stable leadership under center, Denver struggles to execute game plans effectively when already rattled by recent defeats. The pressure of home crowds expecting immediate redemption often leads to forced plays and compounding mistakes. This trend carries the most weight early in seasons when Denver's psychological patterns are still forming, and late in years when playoff implications heighten the stakes surrounding each home game.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Broncos's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Denver Broncos have a 1-13-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a 7.1% ATS win rate in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Denver Broncos as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Broncos as home favorites after a loss is not profitable, with an ROI of -86.4%. This trend has resulted in significant losses for bettors over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as teams typically cover around 50% of spreads. The Broncos' 7.1% ATS rate in this situation is exceptionally poor compared to normal expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.