The public often underestimates the Denver Broncos in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Denver Broncos hold a record of 7-3-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +33.6% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $3 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record7-3-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size10 games
ROI+33.6%
Units Won+3.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20164-0-00.0%+90.9%
20191-0-00.0%+90.9%
20201-0-00.0%+90.9%
20220-2-00.0%-100.0%
20241-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Broncos' success as home underdogs following wins stems from their historically strong defensive culture and the psychological dynamics at play in Mile High Stadium. When Denver enters as an underdog at home after a victory, they're typically facing superior opponents during transitional seasons or when dealing with key injuries. However, the altitude advantage becomes amplified in these scenarios, as visiting teams often struggle more against a motivated Broncos squad that feels disrespected by the betting market. Denver's defensive identity has remained consistent even through coaching changes, creating a foundation that performs exceptionally well when backed against the wall. The combination of home field advantage and the chip-on-shoulder mentality from being underdogs despite recent success creates an environment where the Broncos consistently outperform expectations. Teams coming off wins often carry confidence that translates into sharper execution, particularly on the defensive side where communication and energy are crucial. The key insight for bettors is recognizing when Denver's defensive metrics remain strong despite being home underdogs - this typically signals an overreaction by oddsmakers to recent opponent performance or public perception. This trend matters most early in seasons when sample sizes are small and during primetime games where the emotional element is heightened.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Broncos's ATS record as home underdog after a win?

The Denver Broncos have a 7-3-0 ATS record as home underdogs after a win from 2014-2024. This translates to a 70% ATS win rate over 10 games in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Denver Broncos as home underdog after a win profitable?

Yes, betting on the Denver Broncos as home underdogs after a win has been highly profitable with a 33.6% ROI. Despite covering the spread 70% of the time, this strategy has generated strong returns for bettors.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance significantly outperforms typical expectations, as most teams struggle as home underdogs. The 70% ATS rate and 33.6% ROI are well above league averages for similar situations.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.