The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Broncos in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away vs division rival, the Denver Broncos are just 5-10-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -36.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +36.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record5-10-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size15 games
ROI-36.4%
Units Won-5.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-2-00.0%-100.0%
20163-0-00.0%+90.9%
20170-1-00.0%-100.0%
20191-0-00.0%+90.9%
20200-3-00.0%-100.0%
20210-1-00.0%-100.0%
20221-2-00.0%-36.4%
20240-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Broncos' struggles against division rivals on the road stem from the unique intensity and familiarity that defines AFC West matchups. Playing in hostile environments like Arrowhead Stadium, Allegiant Stadium, and SoFi Stadium amplifies the psychological pressure, particularly when facing teams that know Denver's tendencies intimately. Division opponents have twice-yearly opportunities to study film and exploit weaknesses, making it especially difficult for visiting teams to surprise or outscheme their hosts. Denver's offensive inconsistency becomes magnified in these high-stakes road environments. The team has historically relied on strong defensive play and home-field advantage at Mile High, but those advantages evaporate when traveling to face rivals who are equally motivated and better prepared. The emotional weight of division games often leads to conservative play-calling and increased pressure on quarterbacks, areas where the Broncos have shown vulnerability in recent seasons. The trend reflects a broader pattern where road underdogs in division games face inflated expectations from bettors who overvalue rivalry narratives. Sharp money often fades public backing of dramatic storylines in favor of situational disadvantages. This trend carries the most weight during late-season division games when playoff implications are at stake, as desperation can lead to uncharacteristic performances that contradict regular-season patterns.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Broncos's ATS record as away vs division rival?

The Denver Broncos have a 5-10-0 ATS record when playing as away vs division rival from 2014-2024. This represents a 33.3% ATS win rate over 15 games.

Is betting on the Denver Broncos as away vs division rival profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Broncos as away vs division rival has not been profitable, with a -36.4% ROI from 2014-2024. This poor performance indicates consistent losses for bettors backing Denver in these situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average of approximately 50% ATS win rate. The Broncos' 33.3% ATS rate and -36.4% ROI in away division games represents one of the worst trends in this category.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.