Denver Broncos Away Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Broncos in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Denver Broncos are just 6-8-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -18.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +18.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2015 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2018 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2020 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2022 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2024 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Broncos' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a combination of psychological fragmentation and organizational instability that has plagued the franchise since their Super Bowl 50 victory. When Denver loses a game, the team often enters a reactive mindset rather than maintaining the composure expected of a favorite. This is particularly pronounced on the road, where the Broncos have historically relied on strong defensive play and ball control - elements that become compromised when players press to make up for previous disappointments. Denver's coaching carousel since Gary Kubiak's departure has exacerbated this issue. Different offensive philosophies under Vance Joseph, Vic Fangio, and Nathaniel Hackett created inconsistent identity, making it difficult for players to execute confidently in pressure situations. The franchise's quarterback instability during this period meant the team lacked a steady leader who could rally the squad after setbacks, particularly in hostile environments where communication and poise are paramount. The key insight for bettors is recognizing that Denver's road favorite status often reflects market overreaction to their defensive reputation rather than current form and leadership dynamics. This trend carries the most weight when the Broncos are favored by more than a field goal on the road following a divisional loss, where emotional carryover tends to be strongest.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Denver Broncos's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?
The Denver Broncos have an ATS record of 6-8-0 (42.9%) as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This means they have failed to cover the spread in 8 of their 14 games in this situation.
Is betting on the Denver Broncos as away favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Denver Broncos as away favorites after a loss has not been profitable, with a 0.0% win rate and a -18.2% ROI from 2014-2024. This represents a significant loss for bettors who consistently wagered on Denver in this scenario.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is well below the typical league average for away favorites, which generally covers around 48-52% of the time. The Broncos' 42.9% ATS rate and negative ROI indicate they have been particularly unreliable in this specific situation.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.