The data suggests caution when backing the Denver Broncos in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Denver Broncos are just 8-18-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -41.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +41.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record8-18-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size26 games
ROI-41.3%
Units Won-10.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-2-00.0%-36.4%
20150-1-00.0%-100.0%
20160-3-00.0%-100.0%
20172-1-00.0%+27.3%
20180-1-00.0%-100.0%
20191-0-00.0%+90.9%
20201-3-00.0%-52.3%
20210-1-00.0%-100.0%
20221-3-00.0%-52.3%
20231-2-00.0%-36.4%
20241-1-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Broncos' struggles as road favorites stem from a fundamental mismatch between market perception and their actual road identity. Denver has historically been a team that relies heavily on their home-field advantage at Mile High Stadium, where the altitude and crowd noise create genuine competitive edges that simply don't travel. When the betting market makes them road favorites, it's often overvaluing their home performances or recent hot streaks that may not translate to hostile environments. Denver's offensive schemes under various coordinators have shown a concerning pattern of becoming predictable and conservative when playing with a lead on the road. This conservative approach, combined with their tendency to struggle in loud stadiums, creates situations where they fail to cover spreads even when winning games outright. The psychological pressure of being expected to win away from home has consistently led to flat performances, particularly in the first half when establishing early momentum is crucial. Smart bettors should be particularly wary of backing Denver as road favorites in divisional games or when facing teams coming off poor performances, as these scenarios amplify the Broncos' tendency to play down to competition level. This trend matters most when Denver is favored by 3-6 points on the road, where their margin for error becomes razor-thin.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Denver Broncos's ATS record as away favorite?

The Denver Broncos have an 8-18-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in just 30.8% of games. This represents a significant struggle to meet expectations when favored on the road.

Is betting on the Denver Broncos as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Denver Broncos as away favorites is not profitable, with a -41.3% ROI over this period. This poor performance would result in substantial losses for bettors consistently backing Denver in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below the typical league average of around 50% ATS for away favorites. The Broncos' 30.8% cover rate in this situation ranks among the worst in the NFL over this timeframe.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.