Dallas Cowboys Small Underdog (+1 to +3) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Dallas Cowboys in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the Dallas Cowboys are just 4-8-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -36.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +36.4%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2015 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2016 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2020 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2022 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2023 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Cowboys' struggles as small underdogs stem from their organizational identity crisis when cast in an unfamiliar role. Dallas has cultivated a culture of expectation and swagger that becomes counterproductive when they're not favored. The franchise's "America's Team" mystique creates internal pressure to prove oddsmakers wrong rather than execute fundamentally sound football, leading to forced plays and mental mistakes. Jerry Jones' influence compounds this issue, as his public confidence often translates to overconfidence on the field. When Dallas enters games as slight underdogs, players frequently abandon disciplined game plans in favor of spectacular individual efforts to validate their perceived superiority. This manifests in unnecessary risks on offense and overpursuing on defense, creating the explosive plays that typically doom small underdogs who need to stay within striking distance. The Cowboys' talent level also works against them in these spots. Their roster construction emphasizes star power over depth, making them vulnerable when games become grinding affairs that small underdog scenarios often produce. Elite players pressing to make impact plays rather than trusting the process creates the exact volatility that sharp money typically exploits. This trend matters most in divisional games and primetime slots where the Cowboys' ego and media attention amplify these psychological factors.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dallas Cowboys's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?
The Dallas Cowboys have a 4-8-0 ATS record as small underdogs (+1 to +3) from 2014-2024. This represents a 33.3% ATS win rate in these situations.
Is betting on the Dallas Cowboys as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?
No, betting on the Dallas Cowboys as small underdogs (+1 to +3) has not been profitable. The strategy shows a -36.4% ROI with a 0.0% straight-up win rate over this period.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly below the league average, as teams typically cover around 50% of spreads. The Cowboys' 33.3% ATS rate and negative ROI indicate poor performance in small underdog situations compared to league norms.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.