Cincinnati Bengals Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend

The Bengals' struggles as large favorites stem from a franchise culture that has historically lacked the killer instinct needed to dominate inferior opponents. Cincinnati's conservative offensive philosophy under various coaching regimes often leads to playing down to competition rather than stepping on throats when given the opportunity. The team's tendency to rely heavily on their passing attack through Joe Burrow or previously Andy Dalton creates volatility against weaker defenses that might sell out to stop the pass, leading to closer-than-expected games. Cincinnati's defensive inconsistencies compound this issue, as they've frequently allowed backdoor covers by failing to maintain intensity against overmatched opponents. The Bengals have shown a pattern of emotional letdowns when expectations are highest, particularly in primetime or divisional matchups where they're expected to cruise. Their young core, while talented, sometimes lacks the veteran leadership necessary to maintain focus when the scoreboard suggests an easy victory. The actionable insight here is to consistently fade the Bengals when they're laying more than a touchdown, especially against division rivals or teams with nothing to lose. This trend becomes most critical in December and January games when playoff positioning creates additional pressure and Cincinnati's tendency to overthink situations becomes magnified.