The data suggests caution when backing the Cincinnati Bengals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Cincinnati Bengals are just 4-6-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -23.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +23.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record4-6-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size10 games
ROI-23.6%
Units Won-2.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20150-1-00.0%-100.0%
20160-2-00.0%-100.0%
20180-2-00.0%-100.0%
20201-0-00.0%+90.9%
20211-0-00.0%+90.9%
20232-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Bengals' struggles against division rivals at home stem from the AFC North's unique competitive dynamics and Cincinnati's historical positioning within the division. Unlike other divisions where one team dominates for extended periods, the AFC North features four franchises that know each other intimately, with Baltimore and Pittsburgh particularly excelling at neutralizing Cincinnati's offensive rhythm through aggressive defensive schemes they've perfected over years of twice-yearly matchups. Cincinnati's home field advantage at Paul Brown Stadium has traditionally been less pronounced than other NFL venues, lacking the intimidating atmosphere that can rattle division opponents who are already familiar with the environment. The Bengals have often entered these divisional matchups as underdogs or small favorites, creating line value for opponents who understand Cincinnati's tendencies better than most oddsmakers account for. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Division games carry additional pressure and familiarity breeds contempt, leading to tighter, more defensive contests that often favor the road team getting points. Pittsburgh's defensive prowess and Baltimore's physical style have historically disrupted Cincinnati's timing-based offensive attack at home. This trend matters most when the Bengals are favored by more than a field goal against AFC North opponents, particularly against Pittsburgh or Baltimore in prime-time home games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cincinnati Bengals's ATS record as home vs division rival?

The Cincinnati Bengals have a 4-6-0 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This represents a 40% ATS win rate in these matchups.

Is betting on the Cincinnati Bengals as home vs division rival profitable?

No, betting on the Cincinnati Bengals at home vs division rivals has not been profitable, showing a -23.6% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost money consistently backing the Bengals in these situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is below the expected 50% ATS baseline, indicating the Bengals have struggled to cover spreads at home against division opponents. The negative ROI suggests they've been overvalued by oddsmakers in these matchups.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.