The data suggests caution when backing the Cincinnati Bengals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Cincinnati Bengals are just 15-25-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -28.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +28.4%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record15-25-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size40 games
ROI-28.4%
Units Won-11.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20152-2-00.0%-4.5%
20162-2-00.0%-4.5%
20170-1-00.0%-100.0%
20185-4-00.0%+6.1%
20190-4-00.0%-100.0%
20200-5-00.0%-100.0%
20212-1-00.0%+27.3%
20221-1-00.0%-4.5%
20232-2-00.0%-4.5%
20241-2-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Bengals' struggles as favorites stem from a franchise culture that has historically thrived in underdog scenarios while wilting under the weight of expectations. Cincinnati's organizational DNA reflects decades of conservative management and a "prove it" mentality that translates poorly when they're expected to dominate. The team's roster construction has traditionally emphasized complementary players over game-changing superstars, creating a ceiling that becomes exposed when facing supposedly inferior opponents who elevate their play. Joe Burrow's arrival has begun shifting this dynamic, evidenced by their improved 2021 performance as favorites, but old habits die hard in Cincinnati. The Bengals often match their opponent's intensity rather than imposing their will, leading to closer-than-expected contests even when talent suggests they should cruise. Their coaching staff has shown a tendency toward conservative game plans when ahead, allowing underdogs to hang around and cover spreads. Smart bettors should be particularly wary of backing Cincinnati as road favorites, where their psychological disadvantages compound with hostile environments. This trend carries the most weight when the Bengals are favored by more than a touchdown against teams with nothing to lose, as these scenarios perfectly encapsulate their historical inability to deliver knockout punches when the betting market expects dominance.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Cincinnati Bengals's ATS record as as favorite?

The Cincinnati Bengals have an ATS record of 15-25-0 when favored from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 37.5% of games. This represents a poor track record of 25 losses against 15 wins when expected to win by the betting line.

Is betting on the Cincinnati Bengals as as favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Cincinnati Bengals as favorites has been unprofitable with a -28.4% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost approximately 28 cents for every dollar wagered on Cincinnati when they were favored.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average, as NFL favorites typically cover around 48-52% of the time. The Bengals' 37.5% ATS win rate as favorites ranks among the worst in the league over this timeframe.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.