Chicago Bears Small Favorite (-1 to -3) Betting Trend

The Bears' struggles as small favorites stem from their historical identity crisis between expectations and execution. Chicago has long been viewed as a defensive-minded, grind-it-out franchise that should control games at home or against weaker opponents. However, when oddsmakers install them as slight favorites, it often reflects overvaluation of their defensive reputation rather than their actual offensive capabilities. Small favorite situations typically arise when the Bears face teams with comparable talent levels, creating games that hinge on execution rather than raw ability. Chicago's offensive inconsistency becomes magnified in these spots, as they can't rely on defensive dominance alone to cover narrow spreads. The psychological pressure of being expected to win, even marginally, has historically exposed their limitations in close games where every possession matters. The Bears' coaching instability over this period has also contributed to poor game management in tight contests. When facing teams they "should" beat, Chicago often plays conservatively, leading to underwhelming performances that fall short of covering small numbers. This trend matters most when the Bears are home favorites against divisional opponents or struggling teams, where public perception inflates their line value beyond their actual superiority.