Chicago Bears Medium Favorite (-3.5 to -7) Betting Trend

The Bears' struggles as medium favorites stem from a franchise that consistently overachieves expectations in smaller spots but falters when the betting market expects them to control games. Chicago's defensive identity has historically kept them competitive against superior opponents, but when laying meaningful points, their offensive limitations become magnified. The Bears have rarely possessed the type of explosive, consistent offense needed to pull away from opponents, instead relying on field position, turnovers, and grinding out victories. This dynamic creates a perfect storm when Chicago is favored by a touchdown or less. The market respects their defensive capabilities and home-field advantage at Soldier Field, but the Bears lack the offensive firepower to meet these elevated expectations. Their tendency to play down to competition—a hallmark of defensively-oriented teams—means they often find themselves in tight games regardless of opponent quality. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Chicago's coaching staffs have historically adopted conservative approaches when protecting leads, allowing inferior opponents to hang around and cover spreads they shouldn't. This trend matters most when the Bears face divisional opponents or teams with similar defensive profiles, where their offensive struggles become even more pronounced in what often become low-scoring slugfests.