The public often underestimates the Chicago Bears in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Chicago Bears hold a record of 18-6-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +43.2% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $10 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record18-6-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size24 games
ROI+43.2%
Units Won+10.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-0-00.0%+90.9%
20151-0-00.0%+90.9%
20163-1-00.0%+43.2%
20171-1-00.0%-4.5%
20182-0-00.0%+90.9%
20191-1-00.0%-4.5%
20202-0-00.0%+90.9%
20211-2-00.0%-36.4%
20220-1-00.0%-100.0%
20233-0-00.0%+90.9%
20243-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Bears' exceptional performance as large underdogs stems from a franchise culture built on defensive grit and organizational pride that refuses to fold when written off. Chicago's defensive identity historically allows them to stay competitive against superior opponents by forcing turnovers, limiting explosive plays, and keeping games within reach longer than oddsmakers anticipate. When facing significant point spreads, the Bears benefit from reduced pressure and can play with the aggressive, risk-taking mentality that suits their defensive personnel. Large underdog situations often coincide with primetime games or divisional matchups where Chicago's home crowd at Soldier Field becomes a significant factor. The Bears also tend to simplify their game plan as heavy underdogs, leaning into their running game and short passing attack while their defense focuses on creating chaos rather than perfect execution. This approach neutralizes talent disparities that create large spreads in the first place. The key insight for bettors is recognizing when Chicago enters these spots with their defensive core healthy, as their ability to generate pressure and force mistakes becomes magnified against opponents potentially looking ahead or playing conservatively with a large lead expected. This trend matters most in divisional games and nationally televised contests where motivation peaks and the Bears can leverage their defensive identity.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Chicago Bears's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?

The Chicago Bears have an 18-6-0 ATS record when they are large underdogs of +7.5 points or more from 2014-2024. This represents a 75% ATS win rate over 24 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Chicago Bears as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Chicago Bears as large underdogs has been highly profitable with a 43.2% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite never winning these games outright (0.0% win rate), they consistently cover the spread at a 75% rate.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Bears' 75% ATS rate as large underdogs significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for underdogs in this range. Their 43.2% ROI indicates exceptional value compared to standard betting expectations.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.