The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago Bears in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away vs division rival, the Chicago Bears are just 4-9-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -41.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +41.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record4-9-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size13 games
ROI-41.3%
Units Won-5.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-2-00.0%-36.4%
20150-1-00.0%-100.0%
20181-0-00.0%+90.9%
20192-0-00.0%+90.9%
20210-2-00.0%-100.0%
20220-2-00.0%-100.0%
20230-2-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Bears' struggles as road underdogs against division rivals stem from a combination of organizational instability and tactical predictability that opponents exploit in familiar matchups. Chicago's frequent coaching changes since 2014 have created inconsistent game-planning approaches, while divisional opponents possess extensive film study and intimate knowledge of the Bears' tendencies. The franchise's historical reliance on defensive identity becomes particularly problematic on the road, where crowd noise disrupts communication and forces the defense into more reactive schemes rather than dictating tempo. Chicago's offensive limitations compound these issues significantly in divisional road games. When trailing against teams that know their red zone packages and third-down preferences, the Bears often abandon their ground game too early and force their typically inconsistent passing attack into predictable situations. Division rivals have learned to stack the box early and dare Chicago's quarterbacks to beat them through the air, a strategy that has proven remarkably effective given the franchise's quarterback instability throughout this period. The psychological weight of playing in hostile NFC North environments, particularly in Green Bay and Minneapolis, creates additional pressure that manifests in costly penalties and conservative play-calling. Bettors should be especially wary when Chicago travels as road dogs to division rivals coming off bye weeks, as the extra preparation time amplifies these existing disadvantages. This trend carries the most weight in late-season divisional matchups when playoff implications intensify the psychological pressure.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Chicago Bears's ATS record as away vs division rival?

The Chicago Bears have a 4-9-0 ATS record when playing away against division rivals from 2014-2024. This represents a 30.8% ATS win rate over 13 games.

Is betting on the Chicago Bears as away vs division rival profitable?

No, betting on the Chicago Bears as away underdogs against division rivals has not been profitable. The -41.3% ROI indicates significant losses, with the team failing to win any of these matchups straight up (0.0% win rate).

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is well below league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% ATS over time. The Bears' 30.8% ATS rate and negative ROI in this specific situation represents poor value for bettors.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.