The public often underestimates the Buffalo Bills in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as underdog, the Buffalo Bills hold a record of 32-10-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +45.5% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $19 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record32-10-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size42 games
ROI+45.5%
Units Won+19.1u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-0-00.0%+90.9%
20153-0-00.0%+90.9%
20161-0-00.0%+90.9%
20173-3-00.0%-4.5%
20181-1-00.0%-4.5%
20195-0-00.0%+90.9%
20202-1-00.0%+27.3%
20212-2-00.0%-4.5%
20223-2-00.0%+14.6%
20235-1-00.0%+59.1%
20246-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Bills' exceptional performance as underdogs stems from a franchise culture forged through decades of adversity and a fanbase that thrives on proving doubters wrong. Buffalo has historically been overlooked by oddsmakers and the national media, creating a perfect storm where the team consistently outperforms lowered expectations. This psychological edge becomes particularly pronounced when the Bills face teams with higher profiles or better records, as they tend to play with the chip-on-the-shoulder mentality that defines successful underdog teams. Sean McDermott's coaching philosophy emphasizes preparation and situational football, which translates beautifully to underdog scenarios where game plans can be more aggressive and creative. The Bills' defensive schemes under McDermott have consistently punched above their weight class, while Josh Allen's gunslinger mentality makes him particularly dangerous when playing with house money. The team's ability to control the trenches and create turnovers becomes amplified when opponents potentially overlook them or play down to their competition level. For bettors, this trend suggests looking for Buffalo underdog spots against teams coming off emotional wins or in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds contempt. This pattern matters most in primetime games and playoff scenarios where the Bills' underdog identity can fuel peak performance.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Buffalo Bills's ATS record as as underdog?

The Buffalo Bills have an outstanding 32-10-0 ATS record when playing as underdogs from 2014-2024. This represents a 76.2% ATS win rate over 42 games.

Is betting on the Buffalo Bills as as underdog profitable?

Yes, betting on the Buffalo Bills as underdogs has been highly profitable with a 45.5% ROI. This exceptional return demonstrates consistent value when the Bills are getting points.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Bills' 76.2% ATS win rate as underdogs significantly exceeds the typical league average of around 50%. Their 45.5% ROI is exceptionally strong compared to most teams' underdog performance.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.