Buffalo Bills Home Favorite Betting Trend

The Bills' struggles as home favorites stem from a combination of inflated market expectations and Buffalo's historical tendency to play down to competition. When installed as favorites at home, the betting public often overvalues the Bills' talent advantage while underestimating how NFL parity affects game outcomes. Buffalo has frequently entered these spots with high public backing, creating line value for opponents who benefit from the inflated spread. Buffalo's aggressive offensive philosophy under Sean McDermott can work against them in these scenarios. When expected to control games, the Bills sometimes abandon their methodical approach in favor of explosive plays, leading to turnovers and momentum swings that keep underdogs competitive. Their defense, while talented, has shown vulnerability to well-prepared underdogs who come in with specific game plans designed to exploit Buffalo's aggressive tendencies. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Playing at home as favorites creates internal pressure to dominate, which has historically led to sloppy execution in winnable games. Buffalo's young core has struggled with these expectations, particularly in divisional matchups where familiarity breeds competitive games regardless of talent disparity. This trend carries most weight when Buffalo faces divisional opponents or teams with strong coaching staffs capable of exploiting the Bills' tendency toward overconfidence in favorable spots.