Atlanta Falcons Primetime Underdog Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Atlanta Falcons in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as primetime underdog, the Atlanta Falcons hold a record of 30-16-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +24.5% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $11 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2015 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2016 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2017 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2018 | 2-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2019 | 4-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2020 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2021 | 3-3-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2022 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2023 | 4-2-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2024 | 4-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Falcons' exceptional performance as primetime underdogs stems from their organizational culture of thriving when expectations are lowered. Atlanta has historically been a franchise that plays loose and aggressive when the spotlight shines brightest and the pressure is off. Their high-octane offensive system under various coordinators has consistently exploited defenses that gameplan conservatively against "lesser" opponents, creating explosive scoring opportunities that bookmakers undervalue. Atlanta's dome advantage becomes magnified in primetime settings, where the controlled environment and deafening crowd noise create a perfect storm for their pass-heavy attack. The Falcons have also benefited from opponents' tendency to overlook them in nationally televised games, leading to flat performances from favored teams who assume victory. Their recent coaching staffs have embraced the underdog mentality, using perceived disrespect as motivational fuel. The psychological edge cannot be understated - Atlanta players have repeatedly mentioned how primetime underdog spots feel like "house money" situations where they can play without fear of criticism. This mental freedom translates to more aggressive playcalling and execution. This trend carries the most weight when Atlanta faces division rivals or playoff-contending teams in primetime spots, where the emotional stakes amplify their underdog motivation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Atlanta Falcons's ATS record as primetime underdog?
The Atlanta Falcons have a 30-16-0 ATS record as primetime underdogs from 2014-2024. This means they have covered the spread in 30 games while failing to cover in 16 games, with no pushes.
Is betting on the Atlanta Falcons as primetime underdog profitable?
Yes, betting on the Atlanta Falcons as primetime underdogs has been highly profitable with a 24.5% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite a 0.0% straight-up win rate, their strong ATS performance of 65.2% has generated significant returns for bettors.
How does this compare to the league average?
The Falcons' 65.2% ATS cover rate as primetime underdogs significantly exceeds the typical league average of around 50%. Their 24.5% ROI also far surpasses what most teams achieve in similar situations, making this one of the more profitable betting trends in the NFL.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.