The public often underestimates the Atlanta Falcons in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog after a win, the Atlanta Falcons hold a record of 11-4-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +40.0% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $6 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record11-4-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size15 games
ROI+40.0%
Units Won+6.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20151-0-00.0%+90.9%
20161-0-00.0%+90.9%
20172-2-00.0%-4.5%
20182-0-00.0%+90.9%
20191-0-00.0%+90.9%
20210-2-00.0%-100.0%
20222-0-00.0%+90.9%
20231-0-00.0%+90.9%
20241-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Falcons' success as home underdogs following victories stems from a potent combination of psychological momentum and Atlanta's historically explosive offensive capabilities. When this team enters their dome environment with confidence from a recent win, they've consistently leveraged that emotional lift against opponents who may be overlooking them due to their underdog status. Atlanta's offensive identity under various coaching regimes has always centered on big-play potential, whether through elite receiving corps or dynamic rushing attacks. This explosive element becomes particularly dangerous when the team carries positive momentum into a home setting where they're not expected to win. The dome's controlled environment amplifies crowd noise and creates an intimidating atmosphere that visiting teams often struggle to match, especially when they're favored and potentially approaching the game with less urgency. The psychological edge of playing with house money while maintaining home-field advantage creates a perfect storm for covering spreads. Teams expecting to win often play conservatively or fail to match Atlanta's desperation level when the Falcons are riding high from a previous victory. This trend matters most when Atlanta faces divisional opponents or playoff-contending teams in primetime slots, where the emotional stakes and national attention amplify the motivational factors driving their underdog success.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Atlanta Falcons's ATS record as home underdog after a win?

The Atlanta Falcons have an 11-4-0 ATS record as home underdog after a win from 2014-2024. This represents a 73.3% ATS win rate over 15 games.

Is betting on the Atlanta Falcons as home underdog after a win profitable?

Yes, betting on the Atlanta Falcons as home underdog after a win has been highly profitable with a 40.0% ROI. Despite the 0.0% straight-up win rate, they consistently cover the spread in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 73.3% ATS rate significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for home underdogs. The Falcons have been exceptionally reliable ATS in this specific scenario over the past decade.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.