The public often underestimates the Atlanta Falcons in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home underdog, the Atlanta Falcons hold a record of 17-10-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +20.2% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $5 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record17-10-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size27 games
ROI+20.2%
Units Won+5.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-2-00.0%-100.0%
20151-1-00.0%-4.5%
20162-0-00.0%+90.9%
20172-2-00.0%-4.5%
20182-0-00.0%+90.9%
20192-0-00.0%+90.9%
20201-1-00.0%-4.5%
20210-3-00.0%-100.0%
20223-1-00.0%+43.2%
20232-0-00.0%+90.9%
20242-0-00.0%+90.9%

Why This Trend Exists

The Falcons' success as home underdogs stems from their ability to elevate their play when expectations are low and their backs are against the wall at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta has historically been a team built around explosive offensive talent, particularly during the Matt Ryan era and now with their young core, which creates mismatches when oddsmakers underestimate their home-field capabilities. The dome environment amplifies crowd noise and creates a controlled atmosphere that benefits their precision passing game and communication. Situationally, Atlanta tends to find themselves as home underdogs against superior opponents or during stretches when public perception lags behind their actual talent level. This creates value opportunities where the line doesn't fully account for their competitive spirit in familiar surroundings. The Falcons have shown a pattern of playing inspired football when disrespected, particularly against divisional rivals or playoff-contending teams where motivation runs high. The psychological element cannot be overlooked – this franchise has faced its share of adversity and heartbreak, which has forged a resilient mentality that emerges when they're counted out. Their coaching staff has consistently prepared well for these spots, making strategic adjustments that exploit opponents who may be looking ahead or playing conservatively with a lead. This trend carries the most weight when Atlanta faces quality opponents in primetime or divisional matchups where pride and playoff implications intersect.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Atlanta Falcons's ATS record as home underdog?

The Atlanta Falcons have a 17-10-0 ATS record as home underdogs from 2014-2024. This translates to a 63% ATS win rate over 27 games.

Is betting on the Atlanta Falcons as home underdog profitable?

Yes, betting on the Atlanta Falcons as home underdogs has been profitable with a 20.2% ROI from 2014-2024. Despite never winning straight up in this situation, they've consistently covered the spread.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Falcons' 63% ATS win rate as home underdogs significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for covering spreads. Their 20.2% ROI indicates strong value in this betting scenario.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.