Atlanta Falcons Away vs Division Rival Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Atlanta Falcons in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away vs division rival, the Atlanta Falcons are just 2-8-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -61.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +61.8%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2019 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2021 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2022 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Falcons' struggles as road underdogs against division rivals stem from a combination of psychological pressure and strategic limitations that have plagued the franchise for years. Atlanta's offensive identity has historically relied on explosive plays and rhythm passing, systems that become significantly more difficult to execute in hostile NFC South environments where crowd noise disrupts timing and communication. The team's defensive deficiencies become magnified against familiar opponents who understand how to exploit Atlanta's coverage weaknesses and run-stopping issues. Division rivals possess intimate knowledge of the Falcons' tendencies, particularly their propensity to abandon the running game when trailing and their secondary's vulnerability to intermediate crossing routes. Teams like New Orleans and Carolina have consistently capitalized on Atlanta's emotional volatility, using early scores to force the Falcons into one-dimensional offensive approaches that play directly into their defensive game plans. The franchise's coaching instability over this period has also contributed to poor road preparation and in-game adjustments. When facing teams that have studied their film extensively, Atlanta often appears unprepared for wrinkles and adjustments that division opponents typically save for these crucial matchups. This trend carries the most weight when the Falcons are catching significant points on the road against division rivals, particularly in late-season games where playoff implications amplify the psychological disadvantage.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Atlanta Falcons's ATS record as away vs division rival?
The Atlanta Falcons have a 2-8-0 ATS record when playing as away vs division rival from 2014-2024. This represents a 20% ATS win rate over this 10-year period.
Is betting on the Atlanta Falcons as away vs division rival profitable?
No, betting on the Atlanta Falcons as away vs division rival has not been profitable, showing a -61.8% ROI from 2014-2024. Bettors would have lost significant money consistently backing the Falcons in these situations.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is well below the league average of approximately 50% ATS win rate. The Falcons' 20% ATS rate in away division games represents one of the worst situational trends in the NFL over this timeframe.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.