The data suggests caution when backing the Arizona Cardinals in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Arizona Cardinals are just 2-13-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -74.5% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +74.5%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record2-13-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size15 games
ROI-74.5%
Units Won-11.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20140-1-00.0%-100.0%
20150-1-00.0%-100.0%
20171-2-00.0%-36.4%
20190-1-00.0%-100.0%
20200-1-00.0%-100.0%
20210-3-00.0%-100.0%
20220-3-00.0%-100.0%
20231-0-00.0%+90.9%
20240-1-00.0%-100.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Cardinals' struggles as home favorites following losses stem from a franchise pattern of inconsistent leadership and emotional volatility that has persisted across different coaching regimes. Arizona has historically been a team that compounds mistakes rather than learning from them, often showing up flat after disappointing performances when expectations are suddenly elevated again. This psychological fragility becomes magnified when they're installed as favorites at home, creating a pressure situation the organization has repeatedly failed to navigate. The franchise's quarterback instability over this period has been a major contributing factor. Whether it was Carson Palmer's injury-prone years, the Josh Rosen experiment, or Kyler Murray's early growing pains, Arizona has lacked the steady veteran presence needed to bounce back from adversity with poise. Teams coming off losses need leadership to refocus and execute, but the Cardinals have instead shown a tendency to press and make critical errors when the spotlight returns. Arizona's coaching turnover has also prevented the development of consistent systems for handling adversity. Without established protocols for responding to setbacks, the team often appears unprepared for the mental chess match that comes with being favored after a poor showing. Bettors should particularly avoid backing Arizona in this spot during divisional games, where familiarity breeds additional pressure and opponents arrive extra motivated to exploit the Cardinals' fragile confidence.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Arizona Cardinals's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Arizona Cardinals have a 2-13-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This represents a 13.3% ATS win rate over 15 games in this situation.

Is betting on the Arizona Cardinals as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Arizona Cardinals as home favorites after a loss is not profitable. This trend shows a -74.5% ROI, meaning bettors would lose approximately 75 cents for every dollar wagered.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average. Most NFL teams perform around 48-52% ATS in similar situations, making the Cardinals' 13.3% rate exceptionally poor for bettors.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.