The data suggests caution when backing the Toronto Raptors in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Toronto Raptors are just 16-18-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -10.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +10.2%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record16-18-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size34 games
ROI-10.2%
Units Won-3.5u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-1-00.0%-4.5%
20153-2-00.0%+14.6%
20162-2-00.0%-4.5%
20172-0-00.0%+90.9%
20181-2-00.0%-36.4%
20192-2-00.0%-4.5%
20202-2-00.0%-4.5%
20212-2-00.0%-4.5%
20220-3-00.0%-100.0%
20230-1-00.0%-100.0%
20241-1-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Raptors' struggles against division rivals at home stem from the unique intensity these matchups create in Scotiabank Arena. Division games carry playoff implications and familiarity breeds tactical adjustments that often neutralize Toronto's home-court advantages. Atlantic Division opponents like Boston, Philadelphia, and Brooklyn arrive with detailed scouting reports and the motivation to steal road wins that directly impact playoff seeding. Toronto's defensive identity, built around switching and help defense, becomes predictable when facing teams multiple times per season. Division rivals exploit these tendencies by running specific sets designed to create mismatches or force the Raptors into uncomfortable rotations. The emotional weight of these games also works against Toronto's typically disciplined approach, leading to rushed possessions and defensive breakdowns in crucial moments. The psychological pressure of protecting home court against division foes creates a different energy than facing Western Conference teams. Raptors players often press to make statements in these high-stakes matchups, disrupting their natural offensive flow and leading to poor shot selection. Smart bettors should target the underdog when Toronto hosts division rivals, particularly in games with playoff implications where the visitors have extra motivation to steal a crucial road victory.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Toronto Raptors's ATS record as home vs division rival?

The Toronto Raptors have a 16-18-0 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This translates to a 47.1% cover rate over 34 games.

Is betting on the Toronto Raptors as home vs division rival profitable?

No, betting on the Toronto Raptors at home vs division rivals has not been profitable, showing a -10.2% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the Raptors in these matchups.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 47.1% ATS rate is below the expected 50% break-even point and likely underperforms the league average. The -10.2% ROI suggests the Raptors have been consistently overvalued by oddsmakers in home division rivalry games.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

Compare Sportsbook Odds

Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.