Sacramento Kings Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Sacramento Kings in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large favorite (-7.5+), the Sacramento Kings are just 18-42-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -42.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +42.7%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 4-4-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2015 | 1-4-0 | 0.0% | -61.8% |
| 2016 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2018 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2019 | 4-3-0 | 0.0% | +9.1% |
| 2020 | 1-5-0 | 0.0% | -68.2% |
| 2021 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2022 | 1-8-0 | 0.0% | -78.8% |
| 2023 | 0-9-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2024 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Kings' struggles as large favorites stem from a franchise culture that has historically lacked the killer instinct required to dominate inferior opponents. Sacramento's roster construction over the past decade has consistently featured talented offensive players without the defensive foundation or veteran leadership necessary to maintain focus against overmatched teams. When installed as heavy favorites, the Kings often play down to their competition's level, allowing lesser teams to hang around through lapses in defensive intensity and shot selection. Sacramento's fast-paced, offense-first identity becomes problematic in blowout situations where game management and defensive discipline matter most. The team frequently abandons their structured offense in favor of individual play-making when building leads, creating opportunities for opponents to mount comebacks. Their young core has shown a tendency to coast when facing teams they should easily handle, leading to tight finishes in games that should be decided by halftime. The psychological burden of being heavy favorites appears to weigh heavily on a franchise unaccustomed to expectations. Sacramento players seem to press when expected to dominate, resulting in forced shots and careless turnovers that keep inferior opponents within striking distance. This trend matters most when the Kings face bottom-tier Eastern Conference teams at home during the second half of the season.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sacramento Kings's ATS record as large favorite (-7.5+)?
The Sacramento Kings have an 18-42-0 ATS record when favored by 7.5+ points from 2014-2024. This translates to a 30.0% ATS win rate over 60 games.
Is betting on the Sacramento Kings as large favorite (-7.5+) profitable?
No, betting on the Sacramento Kings as large favorites has been extremely unprofitable with a -42.7% ROI. They have failed to cover the spread in 70% of games when favored by 7.5+ points.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is significantly worse than the league average, as most teams cover around 50% of spreads. The Kings' 30% ATS rate as large favorites represents one of the worst trends in the NBA over this period.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.