Portland Trail Blazers Home Favorite on Zero Rest Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Portland Trail Blazers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Portland Trail Blazers are just 8-10-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -15.2% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +15.2%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2-2-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2015 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2016 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2017 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2018 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2019 | 1-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2020 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2021 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2022 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | -100.0% |
| 2023 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| 2024 | 1-1-0 | 0.0% | -4.5% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Trail Blazers' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from their historically thin roster construction and reliance on high-usage players who struggle to maintain efficiency when fatigued. Portland's offensive system has traditionally demanded significant minutes from their primary ball-handlers, creating a cascading effect when legs get heavy in back-to-back situations. The team's defensive intensity also tends to wane dramatically without proper rest, as their switching schemes require constant communication and energy that simply isn't there on tired legs. Portland's home court advantage at Moda Center becomes neutralized when they're operating at less than full capacity, as opposing teams can exploit their predictable rotations and slower defensive reactions. The psychological factor plays a role too - Portland players often appear to assume their home crowd will carry them through difficult spots, leading to complacent stretches that allow inferior opponents to hang around and cover spreads. The most actionable insight for bettors is to target Portland's opponents in these spots when the Blazers are favored by more than six points, as the combination of fatigue and overconfidence creates excellent value on the underdog side. This trend matters most during stretches of the season when Portland faces multiple back-to-backs at home, particularly against Western Conference opponents who travel well.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Portland Trail Blazers's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?
The Portland Trail Blazers have gone 8-10-0 against the spread as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 44.4% ATS win rate over 18 games.
Is betting on the Portland Trail Blazers as home favorite on zero rest profitable?
No, betting on the Portland Trail Blazers as home favorites on zero rest has not been profitable. The strategy shows a -15.2% ROI, meaning bettors would have lost money consistently over this period.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance is below the expected 50% ATS rate and significantly underperforms compared to typical home favorite scenarios. The negative ROI indicates the Trail Blazers struggle more than average teams when playing at home as favorites without rest.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.