Portland Trail Blazers Home Favorite After a Loss Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The data suggests caution when backing the Portland Trail Blazers in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Portland Trail Blazers are just 26-30-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -11.4% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +11.4%.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 3-2-0 | 0.0% | +14.6% |
| 2015 | 3-1-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
| 2016 | 5-3-0 | 0.0% | +19.3% |
| 2017 | 3-4-0 | 0.0% | -18.2% |
| 2018 | 1-3-0 | 0.0% | -52.3% |
| 2019 | 2-4-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2020 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2021 | 1-2-0 | 0.0% | -36.4% |
| 2022 | 2-7-0 | 0.0% | -57.6% |
| 2023 | 2-1-0 | 0.0% | +27.3% |
| 2024 | 3-1-0 | 0.0% | +43.2% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Trail Blazers' struggles as home favorites following losses stem from a franchise culture that has historically lacked the defensive intensity and mental toughness needed for bounce-back performances. Portland's offensive-minded identity, built around high-scoring guards and pace-heavy systems, often masks underlying defensive vulnerabilities that become magnified when facing the pressure of home expectations after disappointing results. The psychological component runs deeper than typical home court dynamics. Portland fans have endured decades of playoff disappointments and near-misses, creating an atmosphere where pressure can suffocate rather than elevate. When the Blazers return home as favorites after a loss, that weight of expectation combined with their tendency toward inconsistent effort levels creates a perfect storm for underperformance against the spread. Portland's roster construction over the years has consistently prioritized offensive talent over two-way players, leaving them vulnerable when games require grit and defensive stops. Teams visiting Moda Center after a Blazers loss often arrive with extra motivation, knowing they're facing a squad that may be pressing rather than playing with confidence. Bettors should target this spot when Portland faces defensively sound opponents with strong road records, particularly early in seasons when chemistry issues are most pronounced.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Portland Trail Blazers's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?
The Portland Trail Blazers have gone 26-30-0 against the spread as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 46.4% ATS win rate over 56 games.
Is betting on the Portland Trail Blazers as home favorite after a loss profitable?
No, betting on the Trail Blazers as home favorites after a loss has not been profitable, showing a -11.4% ROI. This represents a consistent losing proposition for bettors over the 10-year period.
How does this compare to the league average?
This 46.4% ATS win rate is below the typical 50% expectation and likely underperforms the league average for home favorites. The negative ROI indicates significantly worse performance than average betting scenarios.
FADE This Trend
The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.