Zion Williamson has gone under his points total in 56.1% of games with one day rest, hitting just 18 overs in 41 attempts. The under has generated a 7.1% ROI while averaging 1.3 points below his betting line. This presents a clear lean toward the under.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a compelling pattern in Zion Williamson's scoring efficiency following one day of rest. Over 41 games, Williamson has consistently underperformed his betting lines by an average of 1.28 points, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his rest-day tendencies. This 22.78 points per game average on one day rest represents a meaningful decline from typical expectations. The 56.1% under rate demonstrates consistency rather than random variance, particularly when combined with the positive 7.1% ROI for under bettors. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Williamson's physical playing style and injury history, which likely impacts his explosiveness on abbreviated rest. The longest under streak of seven games shows this isn't just a few outlier performances but a sustained pattern. While Williamson remains capable of explosive scoring nights, the mathematical edge clearly favors the under when he's playing on exactly one day of rest. The sample size of 41 games provides sufficient data to trust this trend, especially given the consistency of the underperformance margin.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 56.1% under rate combined with a 1.3-point average shortfall creates a clear mathematical edge that oddsmakers haven't fully corrected. Target this spot when Williamson's line sits above 23 points, as the data suggests he struggles to reach peak scoring efficiency on abbreviated rest. The main risk is his explosive upside in favorable matchups against poor defenses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 30.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 23.5 | 20.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 24.5 | 24.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 25.5 | 12.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 26.5 | 31.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 26.5 | 22.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 26.5 | 29.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 26.5 | 15.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 26.5 | 30.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 21.5 | 25.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 25.5 | 28.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-26 | OPP | 25.5 | 29.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-24 | OPP | 25.5 | 36.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-21 | OPP | 23.5 | 20.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 23.5 | 34.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zion Williamson's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Zion Williamson's points prop record with one day rest is 18-23 over/under across 41 games, hitting the over just 43.9% of the time. This represents a clear trend toward lower scoring outputs on abbreviated rest.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zion Williamson Points 1 day rest?
Bet under on Zion Williamson's points with one day rest. The data shows a 56.1% under rate with positive 7.1% ROI, while he averages 1.3 points below his line in these situations.
What's Zion Williamson's average Points 1 day rest?
Zion Williamson averages 22.78 points with one day rest compared to typical betting lines around 24.06 points. This 1.28-point differential has been consistent across 41 games, creating value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Zion Williamson unders specifically when he has exactly one day rest and his line exceeds 23 points. Avoid betting overs in these spots given the -16.2% ROI and consistent underperformance pattern.