Zion Williamson has delivered a brutal 40% over rate on points props over his last 10 games, averaging 23.9 points against lines near 25.6. The consistent underperformance spans multiple weeks, creating a clear pattern of value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Williamson's recent scoring struggles represent a significant departure from his typical production, with the 1.7-point deficit against the line indicating books haven't fully adjusted to his current form. The 14.6% ROI on unders suggests consistent value, while the brutal -23.6% return on overs warns against chasing his ceiling. The current one-game over streak follows a four-game under run, highlighting the volatility that's plagued his recent performances. Most concerning is the persistence of this trend—when a player of Williamson's caliber consistently fails to reach modest scoring lines, it typically signals underlying issues like conditioning, role changes, or nagging injuries that aren't being properly reflected in the market. The Pelicans' offensive system and his usage patterns appear to be limiting his scoring opportunities, creating a structural edge for under bettors. While regression toward his career averages is inevitable, the consistency of this underperformance suggests the market remains slow to adapt, particularly given Williamson's reputation and highlight-reel appeal that can inflate public perception.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 40% over rate combined with consistent line value creates a compelling case for continued under betting. Target games where the line sits above 24.5, as Williamson has shown difficulty reaching even modest totals. Main risk is natural regression and a potential breakout performance that could signal the end of this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 30.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-03-13 | OPP | 23.5 | 20.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-03-02 | OPP | 24.5 | 24.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 25.5 | 12.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 26.5 | 26.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 26.5 | 31.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 26.5 | 22.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 26.5 | 29.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 26.5 | 15.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-01 | OPP | 26.5 | 30.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zion Williamson's Points prop record last 10 games?
Zion Williamson has gone over his points total in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% rate), with a 4-6-0 record. He's averaging 23.9 points against lines typically set around 25.6, creating consistent value on the under.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zion Williamson Points last 10 games?
Bet the under on Zion Williamson's points props. The 40% over rate and 14.6% ROI on unders shows clear market inefficiency. Target lines above 24.5 where his recent struggles create the most value against inflated expectations.
What's Zion Williamson's average Points last 10 games?
Williamson is averaging 23.9 points over his last 10 games, running 1.7 points below the typical line of 25.6. This consistent deficit suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his current form and scoring limitations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williamson points unders when lines are set above 24.5, especially in games where public sentiment remains high. Avoid betting after strong performances, as books may temporarily adjust lines closer to his actual recent production levels.