Zach Collins has hit the over on his three-pointers made prop in exactly half his last 10 games with a 5-5-0 record. His 1.2 average perfectly matches the typical 1.2 line, creating a neutral betting environment with minimal edge in either direction.
Expert Analysis
Collins represents the rare prop bet where the market has achieved near-perfect efficiency. His 1.2 three-pointers made average over the last 10 games aligns precisely with standard bookmaker lines, while his 50% over rate indicates no systematic bias toward higher or lower output. The -4.5% ROI on both sides reflects the vig working against bettors in a truly coin-flip scenario. Collins' role as a stretch big for San Antonio provides consistent opportunities from beyond the arc, but his attempts appear remarkably stable rather than volatile. The current two-game over streak follows his longest under streak of three games, suggesting natural variance rather than a meaningful trend shift. Without splits data showing performance advantages in specific matchups, game scripts, or rest situations, there's no identifiable edge to exploit. The Spurs' pace and Collins' usage rate have likely remained consistent enough to produce this statistical dead heat. Smart bettors should recognize when the market has properly priced a prop and avoid forcing action where none exists.
Betting Verdict
PASS with HIGH confidence. This represents textbook market efficiency where the line perfectly captures Collins' true output level. With identical -4.5% ROI on both sides and a 1.2 average matching the 1.2 line exactly, there's no mathematical edge to exploit. Save your bankroll for props with clear directional bias rather than fighting the vig in a coin-flip scenario.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Collins's 3-Pointers Made prop record last 10 games?
Collins has gone over his three-pointers made prop in exactly 5 of his last 10 games for a 5-5-0 record. His 50% over rate with a 1.2 average represents perfect market calibration against the standard 1.2 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Collins 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Neither side offers value with Collins averaging exactly 1.2 threes against a 1.2 line. The -4.5% ROI on both over and under bets shows the market has achieved rare efficiency, making this a clear pass for sharp bettors.
What's Zach Collins's average 3-Pointers Made last 10 games?
Collins is averaging 1.2 three-pointers made over his last 10 games, which matches the typical 1.2 line exactly. This zero differential indicates the market has properly priced his output with no mathematical edge available.
How reliable is this trend?
There's no optimal time to bet Collins' three-point props based on this data. The consistent 1.2 average and 50% over rate suggest his output remains stable regardless of matchup or situation, eliminating situational betting opportunities.