Zach Collins presents a marginal three-point edge with a 52.6% over rate (10-9 record) and averaging 1.21 makes against a 1.08 line. The +0.1 differential suggests modest value, though the minimal ROI indicates sharp line-setting by books.
Expert Analysis
Collins's three-point production reflects his evolving role in San Antonio's frontcourt rotation. The 52.6% over rate across 19 games suggests a legitimate but narrow edge, with his 1.21 average sitting just above the typical 1.08 line. This differential indicates books may be slightly undervaluing his perimeter attempts, likely viewing him primarily as an interior presence despite his willingness to step beyond the arc. The modest sample size requires caution, as Collins's three-point volume can fluctuate dramatically based on game script and matchup dynamics. His shooting comes primarily from spot-up situations when the Spurs' young guards create drive-and-kick opportunities. The concerning factor is the razor-thin margins here – while overs hit at a decent clip, the +0.5% ROI suggests this isn't a significant market inefficiency. Collins's three-point attempts often correlate with San Antonio's pace and their need to space the floor around Victor Wembanyama. Games where the Spurs fall behind early tend to increase his perimeter usage, while blowouts in either direction can limit his opportunities. The lack of recent form data makes it difficult to assess whether this trend is strengthening or weakening, adding uncertainty to what's already a marginal proposition.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 52.6% hit rate and positive average differential provide a slight statistical edge, but the minimal ROI suggests books have largely corrected this inefficiency. Target games where San Antonio projects to play from behind or in high-pace matchups that increase Collins's spot-up opportunities. The narrow margins make this a volume play rather than a high-conviction bet.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best 3-Pointers Made Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Collins's 3-Pointers Made prop record all games?
Collins has hit the over on three-pointers made in 10 of 19 games (52.6%) with a 10-9-0 record. He averages 1.21 makes per game against the typical 1.08 line, showing consistent slight outperformance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Collins 3-Pointers Made all games?
Lean over on Collins's three-pointers made props. The 52.6% hit rate and positive differential provide a marginal edge, though the low ROI suggests this advantage is diminishing as books adjust.
What's Zach Collins's average 3-Pointers Made all games?
Collins averages 1.21 three-pointers made per game across 19 contests, sitting 0.13 makes above the standard 1.08 line. This +0.1 differential represents the primary source of betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Collins three-point props in high-pace games or when San Antonio projects to trail. His spot-up opportunities increase when the Spurs play catch-up basketball and their guards create drive-and-kick situations.