Zach Collins has been a consistent under performer on one day's rest, hitting over 12.5 points just 38.5% of the time across 13 games. The Spurs big man averages 12.77 points against a typical 12.65 line, creating minimal upside with significant downside risk. This trend strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of Collins struggling to exceed expectations when playing on short rest. His 5-8 over/under record translates to a brutal -26.6% ROI for over bettors, while under backers have enjoyed a healthy +17.5% return. The minimal 0.1 point differential between his average (12.77) and typical line (12.65) suggests oddsmakers have accurately priced his output, yet he still falls short more often than not. Collins's role as San Antonio's backup center means his minutes can be volatile, particularly on back-to-back situations where veteran load management becomes a factor. The Spurs have shown willingness to limit older players' exposure in compressed schedules, and Collins at 26 fits that profile as a injury-prone big man. His longest under streak of three games demonstrates the consistency of this pattern, while his longest over streak maxed at just two games. The fact that he's currently riding one under suggests the trend remains intact. Without any meaningful splits data to suggest variance in different matchups or game situations, the evidence points to a player who simply doesn't have the offensive ceiling to consistently clear modest point totals when fatigue becomes a factor.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Collins's 38.5% over rate and -26.6% ROI for over bettors creates a clear edge, particularly given his role volatility in San Antonio's rotation. The ideal spot is when his line sits at 12.5 or higher, as his 12.77 average provides minimal margin for error. The main risk is a blowout game where garbage time inflates his numbers, but his consistent underperformance on short rest makes this a solid contrarian play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 14.5 | 9.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 12.5 | 22.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 12.5 | 12.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 11.5 | 9.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 15.5 | 6.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 16.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 9.5 | 18.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-10 | OPP | 12.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 12.5 | 19.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-31 | OPP | 11.5 | 14.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-27 | OPP | 13.5 | 9.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Collins's Points prop record 1 day rest?
Zach Collins is 5-8 over/under on his points prop with one day rest, hitting the over just 38.5% of the time across 13 games. This translates to a -26.6% ROI for over bettors and +17.5% for under backers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Collins Points 1 day rest?
Bet the under on Collins's points prop with one day rest. His 38.5% over rate and negative ROI for over bettors creates a clear edge, especially when his line is set at 12.5 or higher given his 12.77 average.
What's Zach Collins's average Points 1 day rest?
Collins averages 12.77 points on one day rest compared to his typical 12.65 line, creating just a 0.1 point positive differential. Despite this minimal edge, he still fails to hit the over 61.5% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Collins points unders when he's playing on one day rest with his line at 12.5 or higher. His backup center role and San Antonio's willingness to manage minutes in compressed schedules creates the ideal underperformance conditions.