Zach Collins has hit the under in 70% of his last 10 games, averaging 11.3 points against a 12.3 line. The Spurs center is currently riding a three-game under streak, making the under trend worth following despite limited sample size.
Expert Analysis
Collins's consistent underperformance stems from San Antonio's evolving frontcourt rotation and his role as a complementary scorer behind Victor Wembanyama. The 11.3 point average represents a full point below his typical line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced offensive responsibility in the Spurs' system. His 30% over rate indicates genuine difficulty reaching inflated numbers rather than random variance. The three-game under streak aligns with San Antonio's recent emphasis on ball movement and Wembanyama's increased usage. Collins functions more as a facilitator and defensive anchor, with his scoring opportunities coming primarily from putbacks and open looks rather than designed plays. The -1.0 differential between his average and typical lines suggests books are slow to adjust, creating exploitable value on unders. However, the limited 10-game sample requires caution, as Collins showed scoring bursts earlier in the season. His role could expand if injuries strike the frontcourt, but current usage patterns favor continued underperformance against inflated point totals.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Collins's 70% under rate and -1.0 line differential indicate genuine role reduction in San Antonio's offense. The three-game under streak suggests this trend has legs, particularly when Collins faces quality interior defense that limits easy looks. Primary risk is a potential blowout where garbage time inflates his numbers or an injury-depleted frontcourt forcing expanded usage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-19 | OPP | 12.5 | 12.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-09 | OPP | 14.5 | 9.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-19 | OPP | 12.5 | 22.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-08 | OPP | 12.5 | 12.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 10.5 | 12.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 11.5 | 9.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-24 | OPP | 15.5 | 6.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 16.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Zach Collins's Points prop record last 10 games?
Collins has gone 3-7 over/under on his points props in his last 10 games, hitting the under 70% of the time. He's averaging 11.3 points against typical lines around 12.3, creating a consistent -1.0 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Zach Collins Points last 10 games?
Lean under on Collins points props based on his 70% under rate and current three-game streak. His reduced role behind Wembanyama and -1.0 average differential suggest books haven't adjusted to his complementary scoring function.
What's Zach Collins's average Points last 10 games?
Collins is averaging 11.3 points over his last 10 games, which sits 1.0 point below his typical line of 12.3. This consistent underperformance reflects his evolving role as a facilitator rather than primary scorer.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Collins under props when he faces strong interior defense that limits easy looks, or when San Antonio emphasizes ball movement over isolation scoring. Avoid during potential blowouts where garbage time could inflate numbers.