Victor Wembanyama's three-point shooting at home presents a compelling over opportunity, hitting 24 of 38 attempts (63.2%) with a +20.6% ROI. The 7'4" center averages 2.11 made threes versus a typical 1.71 line, creating consistent value. Currently riding a six-game over streak, this trend merits strong consideration.
Expert Analysis
Wembanyama's home three-point production represents one of the NBA's most reliable prop trends, driven by his unique physical profile and San Antonio's offensive system. The 0.4 average differential above the line suggests consistent market undervaluation of his perimeter shooting in familiar surroundings. Home court advantages typically manifest through rhythm and confidence for shooters, and Wembanyama's 63.2% over rate indicates the Alamodome provides exactly that comfort zone. The six-game current streak demonstrates recent form aligning with the broader trend, while the longest under streak of just four games shows limited downside volatility. His revolutionary size-shooting combination creates matchup nightmares that intensify at home, where defensive schemes often break down against his range. The sample size of 38 games provides statistical significance, while the consistent 20%+ ROI suggests this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge. However, the lack of split data prevents deeper situational analysis, and any potential regression to league-average shooting percentages represents the primary risk. The trend's persistence across different opponents and game scripts indicates strong foundational support beyond mere hot shooting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 63.2% hit rate and +20.6% ROI create clear value, especially with Wembanyama currently on a six-game over streak. His unique physical tools and San Antonio's system generate consistent home shooting opportunities that the market consistently undervalues. The primary risk lies in potential shooting regression, but the 38-game sample suggests sustainable edge over random variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Victor Wembanyama's 3-Pointers Made prop record home games?
Victor Wembanyama has hit the over on his Three Pointers Made prop in 24 of 38 home games (63.2%) since entering the NBA. This translates to a profitable +20.6% ROI for over bettors, while under bettors face a -29.7% loss rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Victor Wembanyama 3-Pointers Made home games?
Bet the OVER on Wembanyama's Three Pointers Made at home. The 63.2% hit rate and +20.6% ROI provide clear value, especially with his current six-game over streak. His unique shooting ability consistently exceeds market expectations in San Antonio.
What's Victor Wembanyama's average 3-Pointers Made home games?
Wembanyama averages 2.11 Three Pointers Made in home games, compared to his typical line of 1.71. This +0.4 differential represents consistent market undervaluation of his perimeter shooting when playing at the Alamodome, creating reliable betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wembanyama's Three Pointers Made overs during home games when he's in rhythm, particularly during his current hot streak. The Alamodome provides optimal conditions for his unique shooting profile, with 38 games of data supporting consistent over performance.