Victor Wembanyama's steals props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over his last 10 games with a brutal -0.3 differential versus the 1.4 line. Currently riding a five-game under streak, this trend shows strong persistence with legitimate underlying factors supporting continued under performance.
Expert Analysis
Wembanyama's steals struggles stem from his evolving defensive role and the Spurs' strategic positioning. At 7'4", his primary value lies in rim protection and help defense rather than gambling for steals in passing lanes. The 1.4 steals line appears inflated based on his college reputation and early-season projections, but NBA reality shows different demands. His 1.1 average represents a significant 21% shortfall from expectations, suggesting either poor line-setting or fundamental misunderstanding of his NBA role. The five-game under streak isn't random variance—it reflects consistent deployment as a back-line defender who rarely ventures into steal-generating positions. San Antonio's pace and defensive scheme further limit opportunities, as they prioritize half-court sets where Wembanyama anchors rather than creates transition chances. His steal rate correlates strongly with opponent pace and his minutes distribution, both of which have been relatively stable. The 33.6% ROI on unders indicates sharp money recognizing this inefficiency. While rookie development could theoretically increase his steal frequency, the physical demands of his size and the Spurs' long-term injury prevention approach suggest maintaining this conservative defensive posture.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 30% over rate and five-game under streak reflect legitimate role-based limitations rather than temporary slump. Target games where San Antonio faces slower-paced opponents or when Wembanyama's minutes might be managed. Primary risk is a blowout scenario forcing more aggressive defensive schemes, but the Spurs' development-first approach makes this unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Victor Wembanyama's Steals prop record last 10 games?
Wembanyama has gone 3-7-0 over/under on steals props in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% overs. He's averaging 1.1 steals against a typical 1.4 line, creating a -0.3 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Victor Wembanyama Steals last 10 games?
Bet the under on Wembanyama steals props. The 30% over rate and current five-game under streak reflect his defensive role prioritizing rim protection over steal attempts. The -42.7% ROI on overs makes this a clear fade spot.
What's Victor Wembanyama's average Steals last 10 games?
Wembanyama is averaging 1.1 steals over his last 10 games, falling 0.3 short of the typical 1.4 line. This 21% shortfall represents significant value for under bettors and suggests the market hasn't adjusted to his actual NBA role.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wembanyama steals unders against slower-paced opponents when San Antonio plays half-court defense. Avoid back-to-back situations or blowout scenarios where defensive schemes might change, but his role-based limitations make unders consistently profitable.