Tyus Jones shows a pronounced tendency to underperform his steals prop after extended rest, hitting the over just 30% of the time across 10 games. With a -0.2 differential between his actual average (1.0) and typical line (1.2), the under presents significant value with +33.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a clear pattern where Tyus Jones struggles to generate steals when coming off 2+ days of rest, averaging exactly 1.0 steals against a typical 1.2 line. This 0.2 steal deficit might seem marginal, but it represents a meaningful 16.7% shortfall that translates to consistent betting value. The 30% over rate across 10 games suggests this isn't random variance but a legitimate trend tied to Jones's playing style and rhythm. As a methodical point guard who relies on anticipation and timing for steals, extended rest appears to disrupt his defensive instincts and court awareness. The current three-game under streak reinforces this pattern, with Jones failing to reach 1.5 steals in his most recent extended-rest appearances. The -42.7% ROI on overs starkly contrasts with the +33.6% return on unders, indicating books haven't fully adjusted to this tendency. Jones's role as a veteran floor general means his steal opportunities often come from reading opposing offenses, a skill that may require consistent game rhythm to maintain peak effectiveness. The absence of any significant over streaks (longest is just one game) further validates the persistence of this trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI provide a legitimate edge, particularly given Jones's rhythm-dependent defensive style. Target this prop when the line sits at 1.5, as Jones has consistently fallen short of this mark after extended rest. The main risk is a potential hot shooting night by opponents that forces more aggressive defensive positioning, but the trend's consistency outweighs this concern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyus Jones's Steals prop record 2+ days rest?
Tyus Jones holds a 3-7-0 over/under record on steals props with 2+ days rest, hitting the over just 30% of the time. This represents a significant trend toward unders across 10 games from November 2023 through March 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyus Jones Steals 2+ days rest?
Bet the under on Tyus Jones steals props after extended rest. The 70% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders provide clear value, especially when the line is set at 1.5 steals or higher.
What's Tyus Jones's average Steals 2+ days rest?
Tyus Jones averages exactly 1.0 steals per game with 2+ days rest, falling 0.2 steals short of his typical 1.2 line. This consistent shortfall creates a meaningful edge for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyus Jones steals unders specifically after 2+ days rest when the line is 1.5. His rhythm-dependent defensive style struggles after extended breaks, making these spots ideal for under wagers with strong historical backing.