Tyus Jones has delivered exceptional value on assists unders over his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of overs while averaging 8.6 assists against a 9.0 line. The 4-6-0 record and -0.4 differential signal consistent line inefficiency. Strong lean under on Jones assists props.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of market overvaluation on Tyus Jones assists props. His 8.6 average against the 9.0 line represents a meaningful 0.4 assist gap that has persisted across 10 games, suggesting this isn't random variance but a structural issue with how the market prices his playmaking. The 40% over rate indicates books are consistently setting lines too high, likely overweighting his role as Washington's primary facilitator without accounting for the team's offensive limitations and pace factors. Jones's assist production appears capped by Washington's inconsistent offensive execution and limited scoring options, creating a ceiling effect that the market hasn't properly adjusted for. The recent four-game under streak followed by a brief two-game over run shows the volatility, but the underlying trend remains bearish. Most concerning for over bettors is that even in favorable game scripts, Jones struggles to reach the inflated lines. The 14.6% ROI on unders versus the brutal -23.6% on overs demonstrates clear market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit while it persists.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The market consistently overvalues Jones's assist ceiling, creating profitable under opportunities. Target this when Washington faces defensive-minded teams or in lower-paced matchups where possessions are limited. Primary risk is a blowout game script forcing higher usage, but the underlying trend suggests sustainable edge on unders.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 16.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 8.5 | 11.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 8.5 | 6.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Assists Prop Lines
Compare Tyus Jones props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyus Jones's Assists prop record last 10 games?
Jones has gone 4-6-0 on assists overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% while averaging 8.6 assists against a typical 9.0 line for a -0.4 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyus Jones Assists last 10 games?
Bet under on Jones assists props. The 40% over rate and consistent 0.4 shortfall indicate the market overvalues his assist ceiling, creating profitable under opportunities.
What's Tyus Jones's average Assists last 10 games?
Jones averages 8.6 assists over his last 10 games, falling 0.4 short of the typical 9.0 line, indicating consistent underperformance relative to market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jones assists unders in lower-paced games or against defensive teams that limit Washington's offensive possessions and reduce his assist opportunities while maintaining the inflated line.