Tyus Jones presents a compelling under opportunity with assists hitting the over just 49.2% of the time across 61 games. His 7.23 average beats the 6.76 line by only 0.5 assists, creating minimal cushion despite positive differential. The data suggests lean under with disciplined bankroll management.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a nuanced story about Tyus Jones's assist production that sharp bettors should understand. While his 7.23 average exceeds the typical 6.76 line, the 49.2% over rate reveals books are pricing this prop efficiently. Jones operates as Washington's primary facilitator, but the Wizards' inconsistent offensive execution often limits his ceiling. The modest 0.5 differential between average and line means variance plays a significant role in outcomes. Jones's assist totals correlate heavily with game flow and Washington's shooting efficiency - when teammates miss makeable shots, his assist opportunities evaporate quickly. The -6.1% ROI on overs suggests the market has adjusted to his role, while the -3.0% under ROI indicates slight value on that side. His assist production lacks the explosive upside of elite playmakers, making him more dependent on sustained offensive rhythm. The recent streak data showing manageable volatility (longest streaks of 6 overs, 4 unders) suggests his production follows predictable patterns rather than wild swings. Washington's pace and Jones's minutes remain relatively stable, but the team's offensive struggles create a ceiling on his assist potential that the current lines may not fully capture.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 49.2% over rate combined with minimal average-to-line differential creates a slight edge favoring unders. Target games where Washington faces strong defensive teams or when the Wizards are significant underdogs, as these conditions typically limit offensive flow and reduce Jones's assist ceiling. The primary risk is Washington finding offensive rhythm in pace-up spots.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-14 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-12 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-10 | OPP | 8.5 | 16.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-08 | OPP | 9.5 | 4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-06 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-04 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-25 | OPP | 8.5 | 11.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-23 | OPP | 8.5 | 6.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-02-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 14.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-14 | OPP | 7.5 | 15.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-12 | OPP | 7.5 | 16.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-10 | OPP | 7.5 | 9.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-02-09 | OPP | 7.5 | 9.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyus Jones's Assists prop record all games?
Tyus Jones has gone over his assists prop in 30 of 61 games (49.2%) this season. His under record stands at 31 games, showing a slight edge toward the under across his full sample of games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyus Jones Assists all games?
Lean under on Tyus Jones assists props. The 49.2% over rate with minimal line differential suggests slight value on unders, especially when Washington faces strong defenses or plays in low-pace matchups that limit offensive flow.
What's Tyus Jones's average Assists all games?
Tyus Jones averages 7.23 assists per game compared to his typical line of 6.76. While this 0.5 differential favors overs mathematically, his actual over rate of just 49.2% suggests the market prices this efficiently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Tyus Jones assists unders when Washington faces elite defenses or plays as significant road underdogs. These conditions typically create lower-scoring, grind-it-out games that limit his assist ceiling and offensive flow opportunities.