Tyrese Maxey's three-point props with extended rest present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 41.7% of overs across 12 games. His 2.5 average falls significantly short of the typical 3.17 line, creating a -0.7 differential that has generated +11.4% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
The extended rest pattern reveals a fascinating disconnect between market expectations and Maxey's actual performance. While conventional wisdom suggests rest benefits shooters, Maxey's three-point volume drops meaningfully when Philadelphia has multiple days between games. His 2.5 average with 2+ days rest represents a significant decline from his season-long pace, suggesting rhythm and game flow factors outweigh any physical recovery benefits. The 41.7% over rate isn't just slightly below break-even—it's a substantial edge that has persisted across a meaningful 12-game sample. This trend likely stems from Philadelphia's tendency to build larger leads in rested spots, reducing Maxey's need for volume three-point attempts in competitive situations. The 76ers' improved defensive execution with rest often leads to more controlled offensive possessions, limiting the transition opportunities where Maxey typically generates his highest-volume shooting nights. Market makers appear to be overadjusting for rest benefits without accounting for how Philadelphia's tactical approach changes in these spots. The consistency of this pattern, with recent form showing continued under performance, suggests this isn't random variance but a genuine strategic shift in how the 76ers utilize Maxey when fully prepared.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.7 differential between Maxey's 2.5 average and typical 3.17 lines creates legitimate value, supported by +11.4% ROI on unders. Target this spot when Philadelphia is favored by 6+ points, as comfortable game scripts reduce Maxey's three-point necessity. Primary risk is a competitive game requiring increased volume shooting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Tyrese Maxey's 3-Pointers Made prop record 2+ days rest?
Tyrese Maxey has gone 5-7 on three-pointers made overs with 2+ days rest, hitting just 41.7% across 12 games. His 2.5 average in these spots falls 0.7 makes short of the typical 3.17 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Tyrese Maxey 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Lean under on Maxey's three-pointers made with extended rest. The consistent underperformance (41.7% overs) and +11.4% ROI on unders creates legitimate value, especially when Philadelphia is heavily favored.
What's Tyrese Maxey's average 3-Pointers Made 2+ days rest?
Maxey averages 2.5 three-pointers made with 2+ days rest, significantly below the typical 3.17 line. This -0.7 differential represents substantial value for under bettors across the 12-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Maxey three-point unders when Philadelphia has 2+ days rest and is favored by 6+ points. Comfortable game scripts reduce his volume shooting, while the market consistently overvalues rest benefits.